Under the tone of destocking, we welcome a small upsurge in consumer urgent orders

1. Semiconductor distributors: inventory reduction is slower than expected


According to Taiwan Economic Daily quoted by IT Home, an IC channel provider revealed that the current inventory depletion rate is still slower than originally estimated. Whether the current short order in the market is a flash in the pan, inflation, the Fed’s interest rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and whether there will be domestic retaliatory buying demand are the focus of observation.


For example, assuming that the originally estimated inventory depletion rate is to purchase 0.5 months of goods and sell 1 month of goods, the inventory can be gradually reduced by 0.5 months; but the actual situation now is to purchase 0.6 to 0.7 months of goods, but only 0.8 to 0.9 months of goods were sold, which led to slower than expected inventory reduction.



2. Morgan Stanley: The recovery of mobile phone demand is not as good as expected, and semiconductor inventory reduction is too slow


According to China Taiwan Business Times, Morgan Stanley Securities (Stanley Morgan Stanley) pointed out that the demand for smartphones in mainland China has not recovered as expected, capital expenditures have further declined, and the number of semiconductor inventory days has climbed to 132 days in the fourth quarter of 2022, much higher than in history. 85 days on average. Based on this, it is estimated that the recovery momentum of wafer foundries in the third quarter may still be weak, and it is not even ruled out that TSMC may need to revise its 2023 full-year revenue forecast.


Morgan Stanley considers that individual stocks in the semiconductor industry have risen by 20%-30% this year, and expectations for the recovery of the industry are not low. Any disappointment in the progress of the recovery in the third quarter would weigh on stock prices. In view of this, Morgan Stanley downgraded semiconductor stocks. But at the same time, those who decline first will recover first. At present, the inventory of PC channels in the United States has decreased significantly, and some semiconductor companies have received urgent orders, which is good for companies such as Realtek, Novatek, and Chipbond.



3. Chips related to laptops and mobile phones welcome short-term rush orders

According to the Science and Technology Board Daily citing the Taiwan Economic Daily, in the recent semiconductor market, there has been a small amount of inventory replenishment demand for laptops and mobile phone-related applications. Short-term small quantity urgent order.


Relevant manufacturers admit frankly that it is not yet considered that the market has recovered, but at least some orders have begun. Even if the quantity is not large, reducing inventory is still a priority. Manufacturers admit that visibility is still limited, and most customers are only willing to place urgent orders rather than long-term orders. Therefore, some IC design factories prefer to let customers place orders and wait for the goods, rather than prepare too much inventory first.



4. It is rumored that Apple has cut TSMC’s foundry orders, which may include 3nm


According to TechWeb citing foreign media reports, the latest supply chain reports also show that Apple has cut TSMC’s chip foundry orders, and the cuts may also involve the 3nm process that was mass-produced in December last year. The current yield rate of TSMC’s 3nm process technology is higher than expected, and the chips that Apple can obtain will also be higher than expected, and the number of chips that Apple needs can be reached with less investment.

Customers such as Apple cut orders, which means that TSMC’s revenue will be affected. In the financial report released last month, TSMC also expects that the revenue in the first quarter will decline year-on-year. 17.57 billion US dollars in the same period last year.


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