The chip delivery time is shortened, and the three major original manufacturers are the most obvious

1. Susquehanna: Chip delivery cycle has been shortened for 9 consecutive months

According to foreign media SemiMedia, the latest report from the financial institution Susquehanna Financial pointed out that the chip delivery cycle has been shortened for 9 consecutive months, indicating that the chip shortage that lasted for about two years has passed. The current semiconductor delivery period is lower than the historical peak in May 2022. 4 weeks, the actual lead time may be shortened faster than expected, because dealers are worried about customers canceling orders.

Average semiconductor lead times are currently <> weeks shorter than their historical peak in March 2022. Actual lead times may shrink faster than expected because distributors are reluctant to shorten lead times for fear of customer order cancellations.

Specifically, Microchip’s lead times have shortened significantly, and Xilinx’s lead times have shortened significantly over the past few months. While lead times from suppliers such as Microchip, TI and XNP are rapidly decreasing, lead times from ST, Infineon and ON Semiconductor have remained relatively stable.

2. IC design orders are warming up, restarting part of the production

According to a MoneyDJ report quoted by Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the demand for orders in the IC design industry has picked up recently, with urgent orders and short-term orders mainly. After some IC design applications were replenished, some chip part numbers also had inventory pull alarms. Some IC design manufacturers gradually began to restart production, and are expected to receive discounts from foundry factories, which will be reflected in the cost in the second half of the year.

Some manufacturers admitted frankly that they would increase the production volume due to the attractive price, and they are not pessimistic about the market situation in the second half of the year. However, some manufacturers said that customers are not clear about the demand for follow-up orders, but because some part numbers have been digested, they have begun to re-introduce films, but the amount of film inputs is not too large.

3. The decline in driver IC quotations has converged, and the period of maximum pressure has passed

According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily quoted by Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, due to the impact of wafer foundry price cuts, chip quotation declines, and high inventory gradually being eliminated, manufacturers related to driver ICs and power management ICs have become the first to take a breather in recent IC designs. manufacturer.

Relevant companies bluntly stated that the “most stressful quarter” in the fourth quarter of last year has passed, and the cost structure is improving, which has gradually eased the pressure on gross profit margins. In terms of IC prices, some driver IC manufacturers said that if you compare the price reduction rate from an angle, it would be about 45 degrees. , but it has converged to about 5 degrees in February.

4. Global fab equipment spending will slow down in 2023 and is expected to recover in 2024

The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) predicts in its latest report that global fab equipment spending is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year in 2023, from a record high of US$98 billion in 2022 to US$76 billion, and will increase by 21% year-on-year in 2024. , recovered to $92 billion.

As more and more suppliers provide foundry services, Foundry is expected to lead semiconductor expansion with an investment of US$43.4 billion in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; in 2024, it will increase by 12.4% to US$48.8 billion. Memory is expected to rank second in global spending in 2023, despite a year-on-year decrease of 44.4% to $17.1 billion; memory investment will increase to $28.2 billion in 2024. Analog and Power will expand steadily, with spending expected to rise 1.3% to $9.7 billion in 2023, driven by steady growth in the automotive market.

5. Texas Instruments pushes a variety of new Arm R0+ microcontrollers

Texas Instruments (TI) announced on its official website last week that it has launched a scalable Arm Cortex-M0+ microcontroller (MCU) product family, further expanding its broad analog and embedded processing semiconductor product portfolio. The product family is rich in compute, pinout, memory and integrated analog options.

The release of dozens of MCUs supported by intuitive software and design tools enables the MSPM0 family to help designers spend more time innovating and less time evaluating and programming, reducing design time from months to days .

MSPM0L and MSPM0G can be purchased through TI official website and authorized distributors. These MCUs are available in a variety of package sizes, including 16 to 32-pin package options and 8 kB to 128 kB Flash options. Designers can start prototyping now by requesting the LaunchPad development kit for the MSPM0L1306 and MSPM0G3507.

6. TSMC’s U.S. factory plans to mass-produce 4nm next year, and Qualcomm will place the first batch of orders

According to relevant reports quoted by Fast Technology, TSMC’s new factory in Arizona is expected to start mass production of a new generation of 4nm process in 2024, and Qualcomm promised to place the first batch of orders. TSMC’s Arizona plant initially planned to invest US$12 billion and start production of 5nm in 2024. Later, the investment increased to US$40 billion, and the number of factories increased to two. The process of the Arizona plant was upgraded to 4nm, and the other will be directly put into production at 3nm in 2026.

However, due to delays in engineering and equipment installation, shortage of human resources and tight costs, the plant is unlikely to be fully operational in 2024, and may be delayed until 2025. In particular, various costs far exceed TSMC’s expected 50% increase, and may eventually reach 100%, which will seriously affect its market competitiveness.

7. The inventory of Samsung and SK Hynix is piling up, and the memory price falls close to the cost

According to the fast technology report, Samsung’s declaration documents submitted to the Korean Financial Supervisory Service on March 19 showed that as of the fourth quarter of 2022, the overall inventory assets reached 52.2 trillion won (about 274.5 billion yuan), a record high, of which The highest proportion is the semiconductor sector, with an inventory of 29.1 trillion won (about 152.7 billion yuan).

SK Hynix faces similar problems, and its overall inventory assets climbed to 15.7 trillion won (about 82.5 billion yuan) in the fourth quarter. As a result, both manufacturers are expected to experience significant losses in the chip business in the first quarter of this year. According to industry insiders, the prices of PC DRAM and NAND Flash chips have fallen close to the cost, and the transaction prices are expected to fall by 19% and 18% respectively in the first quarter.

At the industry-wide level, Kioxia, Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix and other large particle manufacturers have cut production to alleviate the oversupply situation, which may narrow the decline.